Predictions: Modern Masters 2015 — Followup

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A short while back, I gave my predictions for the cards that I believed would be in Modern Masters 2015, the all-reprint set designed to increase supply of certain cards for Modern (it won’t, just like the first Modern Masters set, but we’ll get to that in a minute.) With the full set having been spoiled on Friday, it’s time to look back at my predictions and see how I did. What did I get right, and what did I miss on?

Let’s dive right in!

ModernMasters2015

Back in 2013, I had posted my predictions for the original Modern Masters set. I did fairly well; I had correctly predicted 9/15 mythics, and 19/53 rares correctly; this meant that I was 40% right, which was a good enough success rate that I had considered this round of predictions to be a success.

Hence, when they announced a sequel, I tried to predict all the mythics and rares once again, to varying levels of success.

For the most part, Modern Masters 2015 does look like it will be a lot of fun to draft (if we could only get our hands on the packs to do so). There are lots of fun cards that would be excellent in draft (though there is a large oversaturation of Lorwyn cards, honestly) and even though I know it’ll be vastly overpriced, I look forward to the first Modern Masters 2015 draft I get to do.

However, there are some pretty important cards missing from the set, which bugs me, so we’ll get to those first.

Serum Visions, Sleight of Hand
Goblin Guide
Damnation
Blood Moon, Magus of the Moon
Arcbound Ravager
Steel Overseer
Crucible of Worlds
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Inkmoth Nexus
• Zendikar fetchlands (ie. Arid Mesa)

All of these cards are starting to get more and more scarce, and hence the price tag has risen on them. Serum Visions is likely the card whose omission is the most surprising from this set (and the fact that it’s not in the set will likely spike its already ridiculous price tag even higher).

The lack of Zendikar fetchlands makes sense, since I’m assuming that they’ll be in Battle for Zendikar, this year’s big fall set. (Likewise, I’d now assume that Goblin Guide will be in that set as well.) It’s much more surprising to see the other cards not be in the set, however, especially since a reprint is needed to keep their prices in check.

These were my predictions this time, and how close I got to the actual list:

This is what I thought the final list of mythics and rares would be for Modern Masters 2015:

My list of Mythic Rares:
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre, Karn Liberated
Mox Opal, Blightsteel Colossus
Thrun, the Last Troll, Primeval Titan
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Thundermaw Hellkite, Splinter Twin
Bitterblossom
Omniscience
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

My guess that the set would focus very heavily on the big Eldrazi gods (Emrakul, Kozilek, Ulamog) was proven right. I had gone so far as to downshift All is Dust to rare, which I was right about; all in all, I did pretty well with my list.

This is the actual list of mythics:

Actual list:
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre, Karn Liberated
Mox Opal
Tarmogoyf, Primeval Titan
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, Iona, Shield of Emeria
Comet Storm, Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
Dark Confidant, Bitterblossom
Vendilion Clique, Tezzeret the Seeker

Number of cards I got right: 8/15 (with partial points for me, since I expected Splinter Twin, but at mythic)

My issue when guessing this year’s mythics (and rares from this set in general) was that I just didn’t think that Wizards would be reprinting anything that was in the original Modern Masters. Hence, I didn’t even consider Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique, or Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker to be possibilities here, and some of the rares that were reprinted I missed on as well.

I was right that Splinter Twin would be reprinted (though I had it at mythic and it’s been reprinted at rare); I count this as a moral victory. I was also right about Tezzeret appearing in the set, though I’d guessed wrong on which version it would be. Finally, there were three mythic Angels that I’d considered for the white mythic slot, and I picked the wrong one, picking Linvala, Keeper of Silence over Iona, Shield of Emeria and Baneslayer Angel. I had the right idea, just picked the wrong Angel.

This time around, the batch of mythics is very, very good. If you open a mythic out of a pack of Modern Masters 2015, you have definitely paid for the price of the pack (with the notable exception of poor Comet Storm). Compared to the last Modern Masters, where we had five slots wasted on the legendary Kamigawa Dragons (Keiga, the Tide Star and co.), the mythics of Modern Masters 2015 are an excellent bunch.

8 out of 15 is not terrible; I had guessed half the mythics right, which is pretty good. How did I do with the rares?

My list of Rares:
All is Dust, Eldrazi Conscription
Steel Overseer, Etched Champion, Ensnaring Bridge, Crucible of Worlds, Spellskite, Oblivion Stone
Noble Hierarch, Elvish Piper, Genesis Wave, Oracle of Mul Daya, Prismatic Omen, Scapeshift, Azusa, Lost But Seeking
Auriok Champion, Serra Ascendant, Mirran Crusader, Daybreak Coronet, Idyllic Tutor, Kor Spiritdancer, Ranger of Eos
Damnation, Bloodghast, Phyrexian Arena, Infernal Tutor, Hand of the Praetors, Phyrexian Crusader, Goryo’s Vengeance
Goblin Guide, Magus of the Moon, Pyromancer Ascension, Through the Breach, Kargan Dragonlord, Dragonmaster Outcast, Shatterstorm
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir, Venser, Shaper Savant, Hurkyl’s Recall, Mindbreak Trap, Coralhelm Commander, Sower of Temptation, Bribery
Fulminator Mage, Wilt-Leaf Liege, Sovereigns of Lost Alara, Radha, Heir to Keld, Voidslime, Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind, Rise of the Hobgoblins, Creakwood Liege, Deathbringer Liege
Inkmoth Nexus

I’ll be honest; I like my list of rares much, much better than what Wizards actually came up with. Here is their list:

Actual list:
All is Dust
Chimeric Mass, Etched Champion, Etched Monstrosity, Lodestone Golem, Lodestone Myr, Long-Forgotten Gohei, Precursor Golem, Spellskite, Sunforger
Noble Hierarch, All Suns’ Dawn, Ant Queen, Overwhelming Stampede, Scute Mob, Wolfbriar Elemental
Battlegrace Angel, Indomitable Archangel, Mirran Crusader, Daybreak Coronet, Leyline of Sanctity, Mirror Entity
Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder, Midnight Banshee, Necroskitter, Profane Command, Puppeteer Clique, Surgical Extraction
Banefire, Hellkite Charger, Spikeshot Elder, Splinter Twin, Thunderblust, Wildfire
Argent Sphinx, Cryptic Command, Hurkyl’s Recall, Guile, Inexorable Tide, Surrakar Spellblade
Fulminator Mage, Wilt-Leaf Liege, Apocalypse Hydra, Ghost Council of Orzhova, Horde of Notions, Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind, Mystic Snake, Creakwood Liege, Nobilis of War, Shadowmage Infiltrator, Swans of Bryn Argoll
Blinkmoth Nexus, Eye of Ugin

Number of cards I got right: 12/53

Wow, just wow. This year’s round of predictions were just disastrous, as I got only a mere 30% of the set right. Much of this had to do with the curious selection of rares this time around, and the inclusion of many cards that in my opinion just don’t deserve a spot in this set.

All is Dust, Spellskite, Noble Hierarch, Leyline of Sanctity, Daybreak Coronet, Splinter Twin, Cryptic Command, Fulminator Mage, Wilt-Leaf Liege, Creakwood Liege, and Blinkmoth Nexus. Out of 53 rares, we have a mere 11 that are worth the price of a Modern Masters 2015 pack. That’s pretty crazy.

In place of useful rares, we have what is likely the fifth or sixth printing of Mirror Entity, Profane Command, Hellkite Charger, Lodestone Golem, etc. I get that Wizards really likes the design of these cards, and I understand that this set is built with Limited in mind, but still… there are going to be so many feel-bad moments when someone opens a $15 pack of Modern Masters 2015 and ends up cracking one of these fifty cent rares, like Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder.

These cards just did not need another reprint, and I think it sucks that they are taking the place of other, much more necessary cards.

I will give Wizards props for one very good inclusion: Hurkyl’s Recall, which had a ridiculous price tag on MTGO due to scarcity online, and needed a reprint very badly. It’s about time.

Conclusion: So there you have it, I was 30% right on my predictions this time around. Modern Masters 2015 is an odd set to me; the mythics are jam-packed with value, but the rares are awful. Out of 68 rare and mythic rare cards, barely 25 of them are actually worth more than the price of the pack, which I find insane. I’m assuming that Wizards has left most of the other cards out, to reprint in a third Modern Masters set down the line.

The set does look quite fun to draft, with multiple draft archetypes, including a very obvious five-colour archetype. Still, I honestly don’t think this set gels quite as well as the original Modern Masters, and is overall a disappointment to me. I plan to draft it once, but afterwards, I will be staying far, far away from this set.

Thanks for reading!

 

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